Todd Cordell

USING NUMBERS TO LOOK AT THE NHL'S FUTURE STARS

Tag Archives: Frederik Gauthier

By The Numbers: Evaluating Prospects With Advanced Stats

Follow @toddcordell

Intro

Analytics in hockey have been growing rapidly over the last few years but there’s still a long way to go – particularly in junior hockey and with prospects.

While there are some good websites (notably CHLStats.com) out there that provide more insight into what really is going on in the prospect world, there is essentially nothing available when it comes to underlying numbers on a game-by-game basis at the CHL and NCAA levels.

When I’m not scouting in a rink I often find myself watching junior hockey on TV whenever the opportunity presents itself. Since I’d watch a lot of games, anyway, I decided to start tracking numbers for prospects in the games televised.

Unfortunately it’s a very time consuming process so I only tracked a handful of players per game.

I didn’t start doing this until midway through the season so I missed the opportunity to track a good chunk of games, however, I tracked a fair amount in the latter half of the season and throughout the CHL playoffs.

What Can This Tell Us?

While there isn’t enough data available to make any dramatic conclusions, this can help give us an idea of how Player Y was utilized by his team, Player Y’s ability to drive play up ice and why Player Y produced as much/as little as they did.

For example, it’s tougher for a player with a lot of defensive zone starts to produce offense than a player who regularly starts in the offensive zone. If Player Y is being spoon fed defensive zone starts his ability to put up points is being hindered.

In terms of zone entries if a player gained the line with possession 20 out of 25 times it’s probably a reasonable bet to assume he’s normally good through the neutral zone.

Notes & Numbers

A couple notes before presenting the data:

– These numbers include all even-strength play (i.e. 5 v 5, 4 v 4, etc.).

– I sorted by league to make all the data easier to navigate.

– I didn’t combine international hockey to a player’s numbers in North America due to different levels of competition, larger ice surfaces, etc.

– Memorial Cup numbers have been added to a player’s league numbers since the level of competition is very similar. That means Leon Draisaitl’s numbers, for example, include what he did against WHL teams as well as what he did at the Memorial Cup against OHL/QMJHL teams.

– SAF and SAA are shot attempts for and against. OZS, NZS, and DZS are offensive, neutral and defensive zone starts. CE are controlled entries and EA are entry attempts.

Without further ado here are the zone start, zone entry and shot attempt numbers from the 2014-15 season for many of the top prospects in North America.

OHL

Screen Shot 2015-05-31 at 7.54.00 PM

WHL

Screen Shot 2015-05-31 at 7.57.03 PM

QMJHL

Screen Shot 2015-05-30 at 6.57.53 PM

NCAA

Screen Shot 2015-05-30 at 3.58.14 PM

World Hockey Championships

Screen Shot 2015-05-30 at 4.00.52 PM

Under 18’s

Screen Shot 2015-05-30 at 3.59.56 PM

**

If you use or share this data, please cite this blog as the resource. Thanks!

Advertisements

By The Numbers: Rimouski Oceanic vs Quebec Remparts – May 27, 2015

Follow @toddcordell

Intro

Players tracked:

*2nd year eligible

Quebec – F Vladimir Tkachev (2015*), F Dmytro Timashov (2015)

Rimouski – F Frederik Gauthier (Maple Leafs)

Final score: 4-0 Rimouski.

Zone Starts

Screen Shot 2015-05-28 at 12.26.53 PM

Vladimir Tkachev started the game playing on Antony Duclair’s line but moved to Dmytro Timashov’s line in the 2nd period. As a result they had similar zone start numbers. Both are good through the neutral zone and generally far well in possession in the games I track so starting them outside of the offensive zone isn’t a cause for concern.

Rimouski was the better team and carried play for most of the night so as a whole the team had a lot of offensive zone starts. Still, Frederik Gauthier was spoon fed as many defensive zone starts as he could handle. He played primarily against the Tkachev-Duclair line early on, and shifted his focus to the Tkachev-Timashov duo when they were put together.

Zone Entries

Screen Shot 2015-05-28 at 12.38.01 PM

Tkachev made good of his only entry attempt in this game. For the most part he’d carry the puck up through the neutral zone and dish it off to someone else before gaining the line.

Timashov was very good through the neutral zone. He’s a good skater and he possesses excellent hands which allowed him to elude defenders if he was challenged.

Gauthier was surprisingly good through the neutral zone. He’s not a burner and doesn’t ooze puck skills but he used his big, strong frame to power through contact and stick checks when necessary. I don’t see him as a dominant NZ guy but he was good in that aspect during this game.

Shot Attempts

Screen Shot 2015-05-28 at 12.50.08 PM

Tkachev didn’t get on the scoresheet but he was excellent in this game. His speed made him very tough to contain, and he was creating chances almost every time he touched the ice. It’s pretty hard to defend a guy when he’s setting up teammates while laying on the ice.

Timashov was in the same boat as Tkachev. He didn’t get on the scoresheet but he was still quite good in this game. When you can drive play at a near 60% clip despite starting more shifts in the defensive zone than offensive zone you’re doing something right.

Gauthier played the best game I’ve seen from him in the Memorial Cup. His possession numbers won’t ‘wow’ anyone but when you factor in he was spoon fed defensive zone starts and was perfect through the neutral zone it’s hard not to be impressed.

**

If you use or share this data, please cite this blog as the resource. Thanks!

By The Numbers: Rimouski Oceanic vs Kelowna Rockets – May 25, 2015

Follow @toddcordell

After dropping their opening games to Oshawa and Quebec respectively, the Rimouski Oceanic and Kelowna Rockets squared off looking for their 1st win of the tournament.

Kelowna jumped out to an early 3-0 lead and, though Rimouski was able to make it interesting for a little bit, never gave up the lead en route to a 7-3 win.

For the Rockets I tracked Oilers prospect Leon Draisaitl as well as draft eligible forward Nick Merkely, while I kept my eyes on Maple Leafs prospect Frederik Gauthier for Rimouski.

Zone Starts

Screen Shot 2015-05-26 at 2.42.29 PM

Nick Merkley and Leon Draisaitl played on the same line in this game. Kelowna seemed hell bent on getting those two away from Frederik Gauthier so they essentially started in whatever zone Kelowna was in when Gauthier left the ice. Both have the ability to drive play up ice and produce offense so I don’t think the Rockets were overly concerned about that duo starting the majority of their shifts outside of the offensive zone.

Gauthier started a lot more shifts in the offensive zone as the game went on. Rimouski was down for almost the entire game and Gauthier is one of their best players so naturally he started more in the offensive zone while the Oceanic were trailing.

Zone Entries

Screen Shot 2015-05-26 at 2.47.17 PM

Merkley didn’t have many entry attempts because Draisaitl is the driver on their line, however, Merkely did show the ability to gain the line with possession in a small sample.

As per usual Draisaitl was a beast through the neutral zone. He’s not a burner but he gets around the ice better than most give him credit for and because of his puck skills and strength he’s very tough to stop.

I didn’t count any entry attempts for Gauthier. The Oceanic are a big, strong team and Gauthier doesn’t ooze speed/puck skills so often when he gained center he would just dump the puck in.

Shot Attempts

Screen Shot 2015-05-26 at 2.58.25 PM

There were 11 power plays in this game so the shot attempt numbers were a little lower than you’d expect to see from top players.

Merkley had a fantastic game scoring a couple goals and creating some glorious chances in the process, but he came out a little less than even in possession. He started more shifts in the defensive zone than offensive zone, though, so finishing almost 50% with three points is pretty impressive.

Draisaitl had a couple shifts away from Merkley throughout the game, and took on some heavier minutes, which shows in the numbers. Draisaitl still tallied three points, dominated through the neutral zone and came out close to 50% in possession despite starting just five of 17 shifts in the offensive zone.

Gauthier really struggled in this game. He started quite a few shifts in his own zone and struggled in the dot – he won 12/29 draws – which led to some shot attempts immediately after the puck was dropped. Rimouski also dumped the puck in a lot and failed to retreive those pucks on most occasions, which allowed Kelowna to grab the puck and take it the other way.

**

If you use or share this data, please cite this blog as the resource. Thanks!

%d bloggers like this: