Recent Posts
Categories
Search
Join 22 other subscribers
Todd Cordell
USING NUMBERS TO LOOK AT THE NHL'S FUTURE STARS
By The Numbers: Soo Greyhounds vs Erie Otters – April 28, 2015
Posted by on April 29, 2015
Follow @toddcordell
The Erie Otters were hosting the Soo Greyhounds on Tuesday night looking to grab a commanding 3-1 series lead before heading back to the Soo for Game 5.
Both teams are stacked from top-to-bottom and loaded with NHL prospects, but I decided to stick with draft eligibles in this one.
For Erie I tracked Connor McDavid and Dylan Strome, while I did the same for Blake Speers and Zach Senyshyn off SSM.
Score: 7-5 Erie.
Zone Starts
Dylan Strome and Connor McDavid are arguably the two best players in the OHL, and they are quite capable of playing at either of the rink. I think the zone starts reflect that, as Erie didn’t seem too adamant about starting them in offensive situations.
Zach Senyshyn and Blake Speers are both very good players who play primarily in Soo’s bottom-6 because their absurdly balanced and talented lines. Head coach Sheldon Keefe has skilled players on all four lines, so I don’t think he was overly concerned with matchups besides getting Darnell Nurse out against McDavid.
Zone Entries
Storm showed the ability to gain the line with possession, however, he wasn’t the go-to-guy on his line in that regard, as 2016 eligible Alex DeBrincat seemed to carry that load.
McDavid was dominant through the neutral zone. He possesses elite speed and high-end acceleration, which forced Soo’s defense to back off and respect him. That shows in the results.
Senyshyn is a real good skater who also showed the ability to safely carry the puck into the offensive zone. He didn’t play a ton – though he did take a few shifts with Nick Ritchie on the top line – but did well in his small sample.
Speers didn’t play a ton and started 50% of his shifts in the offensive zone, so he didn’t have many carry-in opportunities. He made the most of what he did have, though.
Shot Attempts
Strome was on the ice for five shot attempts against on his first shift and he never really recovered. He blocked some shots defensively and did a good job of limiting the chances Erie allowed when he was on the ice, however, it still wasn’t a good even-strength performance. He helped make up for that with strong special teams play, as he scored a goal and tallied an assist on the man advantage.
McDavid didn’t have a great game in terms of possession, but he spent most of his time playing against a) Nick Ritchie’s line and; b) Darnell Nurse’s defense pairing. Those are tough matchups for anyone, and McDavid still came out almost even in possession while dominating through the neutral zone and recording four assists — including a beauty to Alex DeBrincat.
Senyshyn started just two of nine shifts in the offensive zone, and still did exceptionally well in possession. He showed why he’s rising up a lot of draft boards.
Speers had a really good game. He didn’t get on the scoresheet, but he created several chances throughout, and SSM carried play when he was no the ice.
**
If you use or share this data, please cite this blog as the resource. Thanks!
By The Numbers: Canada vs Switzerland – April 26, 2015
Posted by on April 28, 2015
Follow @toddcordell
After losing their semi-final games to USA and Finland respectively, Canada and Switzerland squared off for the second time of the tournament with the Bronze medal on the line.
For Canada I tracked numbers for draft eligibles Jansen Harkins, Mathew Barzal, and Mitch Stephens, while I did the same for undersized draft eligible forward Denis Malgin of the Swiss.
Score: 5-2 Canada.
Zone Starts
Denis Malgin started just two of 16 shifts in the offensive zone. He’s a good skater who is elusive in space, and excellent through the neutral zone, so it makes sense that he was relied upon to drive play up ice for the Swiss.
Jansen Harkins played primarily against Malgin’s line at even-strength, which explains the opposite zone start numbers.
Mathew Barzal and Mitch Stephens were asked to do the heavy lifting for Team Canada. They are certainly capable of doing so, as Barzal is excellent through the neutral zone, while Stephens is one of the best two-way forwards on the team.
Zone Entries
After taking one glance at these numbers it’s not hard to see why Malgin started the majority of his shifts outside of the offensive zone. He’s a God when it comes to gaining the line with possession.
Harkins didn’t start a lot of shifts outside the offensive zone, but showed that he is quite capable of carrying the puck into the offensive zone safely.
Barzal was dominant through the neutral zone from his first shift – literally – until his last. He’s an excellent skater, is very patient and possesses very good puck skills, which makes him very tough to defend in space. The results can attest to that.
Stephens had a couple carry-ins, and also had an attempt broken up when he took a big hit at the line.
Shot Attempts
All things considered it was hardly a poor effort from Malgin. He started the majority of his shifts outside of the offensive zone, and was playing against a much deeper, better team. It’s tough to come out even or better in possession under those circumstances.
It was by no means a dominant effort from Harkins given his zone starts, but he played a solid game. He did well in possession, showed the ability to drive play up ice, and he also picked up a goal early in the game.
Barzal didn’t get on the scoresheet, but he was excellent in this game. He was a force through the neutral zone, and drove possession at a high clip despite starting the majority of his shifts in his own zone.
Stephens’ numbers were lesser than Barzal’s in terms of shot attempts and zone entries, but he was still good in both aspects. It was a good final effort from Canada’s captain.
**
If you use or share this data, please cite this blog as the resource. Thanks!
By The Numbers: USA vs Finland – April 26, 2015
Posted by on April 28, 2015
Follow @toddcordell
USA entered the gold medal game against Finland looking to win for the 6th time in seven years.
The U.S. have a much deeper, talented roster so I tracked three of their players while I followed just one Finnish player.
For the Americans I kept my eyes on a pair of 2015 draft eligible forwards in Colin White and Jeremy Bracco, as well as 2016 draft eligible Auston Matthews. On Finland I tracked numbers for 2016 eligible forward Jesse Puljujarvi.
Score: 2-1 USA (OT)
Zone Starts
Colin White and Jeremy Bracco formed 2/3 of a line that USA seemed adamant about getting on the ice in offensive situations. Finland was outplayed from start to finish, and they iced the puck extremely frequently, so that skewed the offensive zone start numbers a little bit.
Auston Matthews was utilized as USA’s two-way stud, but since USA carried play at such a decisive rate he still had a ton of offensive zone starts. He’s probably the best player at the tournament, though, so that’s certainly not a bad thing.
As was the case against Canada, Jesse Puljujarvi started more shifts in his own zone than the offensive zone. He’s very good at driving play up ice, which could be a factor.
Zone Entries
As a team USA put on an absolute clinic through the neutral zone. Part of it was because it was a back and forth game so there were odd man rushes for easy carry-ins. Part of it is the two teams played 13 minutes of 4 vs 4 in overtime. The biggest factor, I think, was their team speed. All of these guys are good skaters – in some cases great – so Finland was forced to back off and respect their speed numerous times. In Bracco’s case, one thing he did was come through the neutral zone with speed and slow right down at the line, giving him some time and space to make a play after an easy entry.
Puljujarvi put forth a good neutral zone effort. A couple of his entries were blocked at the line, but there were times he wouldn’t allow himself to be stopped.
Shot Attempts
Considering Bracco’s efficiency carrying the puck safely into the offensive zone and the amount of OZ starts he had I was actually surprised his possession numbers weren’t higher. Still, it was a very good game from Bracco, who made a beautiful play while assisting on Colin White’s OT winner.
Matthews was a stud from start to finish. He made several great individual efforts to create chances for himself, and he showed good playmaking ability as well. He was also a beast through the neutral zone. This was as dominant of a game as you’ll see.
White played on a line with Bracco so their numbers were almost identical. White made plays at both ends of the ice and – to a lesser extent than Bracco – was also very good through the neutral zone. White’s strong U18 tournament likely has him rising up a lot of draft boards.
Finland was outshot 62-20 in 73 minutes of play, so to come out anywhere close to 50% is impressive. Puljujarvi did just that despite starting the majority of his shifts in the defensive zone. He’s going to be really good.
**
If you use or share this data, please cite this blog as the resource. Thanks!
By The Numbers: Canada vs Finland – April 21, 2015
Posted by on April 22, 2015
Follow @toddcordell
After winning their first three games against Latvia, Switzerland and Czech Republic, Canada faced their toughest test, as they took on an undefeated Finland team in their group stage finale.
For the Finns I kept my eye on underage forward Jesse Puljujarvi (a projected top-5 pick in 2016) while I tracked draft eligibles Mathew Barzal, Jansen Harkins and Graham Knott for Team Canada.
Score: 3-2 Canada.
Zone Starts
Jansen Harkins is one of the better two-way forwards on Team Canada, and the coaching staff really trusts him, so naturally he was used in a more defensive role.
Graham Knott started the game in the bottom-6, but after Anthony Beauvillier went down with an injury Knott took his spot on the top line alongside Mathew Barzal and Mitch Stephens. His zone starts are similar to Barzal’s as a result.
Jesse Puljujarvi is one of the younger players in the tournament, and was still trusted in a defensive role. He was clearly capable of taking on the tougher assignments, though, as you’ll see below.
Zone Entries
Barzal was dominant through the neutral zone. He’s an excellent puck handler as well as a very good skater, and was regularly able to gain Finland’s line with ease.
Puljujarvi was also quite good through the neutral zone. Given his ability to drive play up ice it makes sense that he wasn’t spoon fed offensive zone starts. Gaining the line with possession is an underrated trait that impacts hockey games a lot more than you’d think.
Shot Attempts
Harkins came out a negative in possession, but overall posted pretty good numbers considering he only had one offensive zone start at even-strength.
Graham Knott started 70% of his shifts in the offensive zone, and barely came out even in possession. Part of it is that he played a handful of shifts against Puljujarvi, but I think one reason for it is that he continually dumped the puck in, and Finland grabbed it and went the other way more often than not.
Barzal played a very good game. He was given plenty of offensive zone starts, but he made the most of it generating the majority of the shot attempts at even-strength. He also tallied a couple points on the man advantage, including this snipe.
Puljujarvi was excellent in this game. He drove possession at a good clip, was effective carrying the puck through the neutral zone, and he recorded an assist against an elite team while playing as an underager.
**
If you use or share this data, please cite this blog as the resource. Thanks!
By The Numbers: Canada vs Czech Republic – April 19, 2015
Posted by on April 20, 2015
Follow @toddcordell
After starting the U18 tournament with consecutive wins over Latvia and Switzerland, Team Canada faced their first real test while taking on Czech Republic.
Canada is the much deeper team, however, Czech Republic does have some high-end talent led by projected top-10 pick Pavel Zacha.
In this game I tracked draft eligible forwards Pavel Zacha and Filip Chlapik for the Czech, while I kept my eyes on Mathew Barzal and Jansen Harkins for Canada.
Final score: 3-2 Canada.
Zone Starts
Jansen Harkins didn’t play much in the 1st period, but was used more as the game went on. He’s generally an effective forward at both ends of the rink – he plays on both special team units as a result – so I don’t think the coaching staff was overly concerned with a) where he started his shifts or; b) who he was squaring off against.
Mathew Barzal and his linemates played primarily against Czech Republic’s best player in Pavel Zacha, who started most of his shifts – particularly in the first two frames – in the offensive zone. As a result Barzal started a big chunk of his shifts in his own zone.
Filip Chlapik is a good prospect, but he doesn’t have the skill set or ability to drive play up ice the way Zacha does, which likely factored into his usage.
Zone Entries
Mathew Barzal and Pavel Zacha were the key neutral zone players in this one. Barzal is an excellent skater with very high top-end speed, so Czech Republic’s defense was forced to respect his speed, and they backed off several occasions as a result.
Zacha was absolutely dominant through the neutral zone. He’s a very good skater and is extremely powerful. Even when Canada tried to meet him at the line he skated through contact, anyway.
And then there was this.
Shot Attempts
Harkins didn’t fare too well in possession considering he only started two shifts in his own zone, however, Czech Republic put pucks on net whenever they gained the line, whereas Canada tried to sustain pressure by cycling down low, so that could have factored in. Nevertheless, he wasn’t great – at least at even-strength – in this one.
Barzal played primarily against one of the best draft eligible players in the world in Zacha, and started a good chunk of his shifts in the defensive zone. As a result, he came out below 50% in possession, but he tallied a couple nice assists, and was very good through the neutral zone.
Zacha was perfect through the neutral zone, and he fired pucks at the net every chance he had. Given the power in his shot, it wasn’t the worst idea in the world. He started more in the offensive zone than defensive zone, and he certainly made the most of it.
Chlapik was spoon fed offensive zone starts, but really didn’t generate a whole lot in this one. It wasn’t a great performance from him, but he was facing tougher competition than he had to work with, which didn’t help his cause.
**
If you use or share this data, please cite this blog as the resource. Thanks!
By The Numbers: Erie Otters vs London Knights – April 14, 2015
Posted by on April 15, 2015
Follow @toddcordell
Connor McDavid and the Erie Otters were in London to take on the Mitch Marner-less Knights in hopes of completing the sweep, and advancing to the Western Conference final.
With Marner out of the lineup, the lone Knight I tracked was Max Domi (Coyotes) while I kept my eye on a pair of draft eligibles centers in McDavid and Dylan Strome for Erie, as well as 2016 draft eligible winger Alex DeBrincat.
Final score: 4-2 Erie.
Zone Starts
Alex DeBrincat played primarily on a line with Dylan Strome so their numbers were very similar. That said, when Erie was defending the lead Strome had a couple defensive zone starts without DeBrincat by his side, which explains the difference.
Connor McDavid and Max Domi went head-to-head the entire game – there were only a couple shifts they weren’t matched against each other – which is why their numbers are almost the exact opposite. McDavid had more offensive zone starts early, but when London was pressing late to tie it Domi was able to get some offensive zone starts in.
Zone Entries
DeBrincat didn’t have a ton of entry attempts because a) Strome took some of them and; b) he didn’t start many shifts outside of the offensive zone, but he certainly showed the ability to gain the line with possession. He’s a very quick, shifty player so London’s defenders regularly backed off to ensure he didn’t blow by them.
Strome wasn’t dynamite through the neutral zone, but he also showed the ability to safely carry the puck into the offensive zone. His lone failure was when he was trying to accept a pass in stride and he was poke checked in the process.
A lot of McDavid’s shifts started on the fly so he had more entry attempts than Strome and DeBrincat despite similar zone start numbers. The offense runs through McDavid when he’s on the ice – as it should – and because of his high-end speed and pace London’s gaps were loose, and this was the result.
It wasn’t hard to see why Dale Hunter was confident matching Domi up against McDavid regardless of where his shifts started. Domi plays with such great pace, and is a dynamic skater, which makes him very effective carrying the puck up ice. He put forth a dominant neutral zone effort and made it look easy at times.
Shot Attempts
DeBrincat started 70% of his shifts in the offensive zone, and played on a line with Dylan Strome, while avoiding London’s best defense pairing/forward line on a regular basis so it was less than surprising to see him post these numbers. Still, it was a good performance from him — he did what he was supposed to do.
I was really impressive with Strome’s game. He took a couple extra shifts away from DeBrincat in defensive situations, and still dominated in possession while tallying a goal, an assist, and getting sucker punched.
For a big name like McDavid you’d expect better numbers, but 50% is hardly a disappointing effort when you factor in a) he was playing against London’s best forward line in Domi, Christian Dvorak (Coyotes) and Matt Rupert, as well as London’s top defense pairing. I think a big part of the reason he didn’t come out higher in possession was that almost every time London gained possession of the puck Domi was safely carry it into the offensive zone, which led to a barrage of shot attempts.
Domi put forth an impressive performance in what will go down as his final junior game. Playing primarily against McDavid’s line he came out above 50% in possession, dominated through the neutral zone, and scored one of London’s two goals.
**
If you use or share this data, please cite this blog as the resource. Thanks!
By The Numbers: BU vs Providence – April 11, 2015
Posted by on April 13, 2015
Follow @toddcordell
BU took on Providence College in the NCAA Championship game, so I took the opportunity to get one last look at Jack Eichel and co. before the summer.
I kept my eye on a pair of draft eligible forwards – Jack Eichel and A.J. Greer – for BU, while I tracked a couple drafted forwards on Providence in Mark Jankowski (Calgary) and Brian Pinho (Washington).
Zone Starts
BU carried play for much of the first two periods so that likely factored in, but even when it was all Providence in the 3rd both Jankowski and Pinho saw a very limited amount of zone starts in the offensive zone. As NHL prospects that are both capable of playing 200-foot games, it was clear that Providence trusted them and relied heavily on them for defensive minutes. They did take some shifts together, but despite similar zone starts the majority of the time they played on different lines.
Jack Eichel is the best player in college hockey, but he wasn’t given a ton of offensive zone starts. One reason for that is likely his ability to dominate the neutral zone and drive play up ice, which you’ll see below.
A.J. Greer’s line was BU’s best offensive line in his game and he’s one of the younger players on the team, so he saw plenty of offensive zone starts as a result.
Zone Entries
Given the amount of shifts Jankowski and Pinho started outside of the offensive zone it was surprising they only combined for one entry attempt. Providence plays a structured defensive pro-style system and they dump and chase a lot, so that’s probably a big reason why.
Eichel once again dominated through the neutral zone. He’s a dynamic skater, strong on the puck, and is an excellent puck handler so whether Providence attacked him at the line or not he was carrying it in.
Greer is your proto-typical power forward – he likes to dump it in, forecheck, cycle, etc. – so it wasn’t surprising he only had one entry. Most times when he gained center he’d just dump it in.
Shot Attempts
Given the amount of defensive zone starts Jankowski and Pinho had, their numbers are impressive. Pinho’s vary a little bit more because he had a couple shifts where Providence was able to sustain offensive zone time and generated multi-shot attempt shifts.
Eichel played relatively heavy defensive minutes, and was up against a very structured team loaded with players in their early-to-mid 20’s so his numbers weren’t as dominant as usual. Still, he was excellent through the neutral zone, picked up an assist, and came out almost even in possession so it was still a solid effort.
Greer’s line was clicking on all cylinders and he was given a good chunk of offensive zone starts – he didn’t really start in the defensive zone until Providence was carrying play late and he had to in order to get on the ice – so his numbers weren’t entirely surprising. It was an impressive showing, though.
**
If you use or share this data, please cite this blog as the resource. Thanks!
2015 NHL Draft Eligibles: CHL Split Stats – Part Two
Posted by on April 5, 2015
Follow @toddcordell
I recently charted split stat numbers for most of the top 1st year draft eligible prospects playing in the CHL.
In that post the numbers were charted and separated by both position and league, so it was difficult to compare, say, a highly touted QMJHL defenseman to a highly touted OHL defenseman.
To make it easier to compare numbers, I tabled draft eligibles from all three leagues, and sorted by most points per game in the 1st half, 2nd half, and differential so you can see exactly whose production increased or decreased as the year went on.
Note: there are more OHLers than any other because that is the league I am most familiar with, and I originally was only keeping track of splits for OHL players.
1st Half Production – Forwards
1st Half Production – Defensemen
2nd Half Production – Forwards
2nd Half Production – Defensemen
Differential – Forwards
Differential – Defensemen
**
If you use or share this data, please cite this blog as the resource. Thanks!
By The Numbers: Brandon Wheat Kings vs Edmonton Oil Kings – April 1, 2015
Posted by on April 3, 2015
Follow @toddcordell
The No. 1 seeded Brandon Wheat Kings were in Edmonton for Game 5 on Wednesday night (2-3-2 format) looking to win their fourth consecutive game and put away the Oil Kings.
While on paper Brandon is the much better team, this game – like most of the series – was a lot closer than you’d expect. Edmonton actually controlled play for much of the game, but couldn’t convert on their many of chances, and eventually lost a heartbreaker in double overtime.
As was the case in Game 4, I tracked draft eligibles Ivan Provorov and Braylon Shmyr as well as John Quenneville (New Jersey) off Brandon, while I kept my eyes on forward Andrew Koep for Edmonton.
Final score: 3-2 Brandon
Zone Starts
Ivan Provorov is Brandon’s best offensive defenseman, so he was given plenty of offensive zone starts. He’s solid in his own zone, too, and fellow draft eligible Ryan Pilon’s minutes were extremely limited due to injury, so Provorov doubled shifted at times, and saw plenty of starts in his own zone as a result. Edmonton carrying play for the majority of the game surely factored in as well.
John Quenneville started many of his early shifts in the offensive zone, but was relied upon in a more defensive role as the game went on. His defensive zone starts went up when linemate Braylon Shmyr was either benched/injured in the latter half of regulation.
Andrew Koep and his linemates played primarily against John Quenneville’s unit. His shifts were somewhat limited in overtime, and it seemed like Edmonton wanted to protect their young player when their season was on the line.
Zone Entries
As was the case in Game 4, both teams seemed content dumping the puck in as opposed to attempting carry-ins. I found that kind of strange considering Brandon didn’t want the puck to go anywhere near Oil Kings goaltender Tristan Jarry (Pittsburgh) given his puck handling abilities.
There were not a lot of zone entry attempts for the players I tracked, but John Quenneville in particular did some nice neutral zone work in his limited attempts.
Shot Attempts
Ivan Provorov’s defense pairing was almost always matched up with John Quenneville’s line as a 5-man unit, so their numbers are quite similar. Provorov had more zone starts, but this was a low-event game so the total shot attempts were the same as Quenneville’s. Not to mention, on a few occasions Quenneville didn’t start a shift but jumped over the boards for a quick change just a few seconds after a faceoff.
Braylon Shmyr was on a line with Quenneville so their numbers were identical early, but Shmyr didn’t play in the latter half of this game.
Andrew Koep’s line once again played primarily against Quenneville’s, however, this time Koep was getting more offensive zone starts than defensive zone starts.
**
If you use or share this data, please cite this blog as the resource. Thanks!
2015 NHL Draft Eligibles: CHL Split Stats
Posted by on April 2, 2015
Follow @toddcordell
As someone who scouts junior hockey, I like to gather as much information about prospects as possible to help form opinions, rankings, etc.
In saying that, one thing I started doing a couple years ago is splitting draft eligible’s seasons into two halves, and comparing the production between the two.
Points aren’t everything, but they are important, and generally a player’s production can help illustrate how well said player is performing. Not to mention, the goal in hockey is to outscore your opponent, and if a player isn’t producing much at the junior level, it’s probably not realistic to expect them to do so in the NHL.
Another reason I started doing this, is that the NHL entry draft is sort of like a stock market. Prior years of performance factor in, but who is trending up or down the most often determines where a prospect goes come June. For example, would you rather have a player who posted 40 points in 34 games during the 1st half and 25 in 34 games during the 2nd half, or someone who tallied 25 points in the first 34 games, and 40 in the latter half? Most will pick the guy who produced more in the 2nd half, I think, because prospects are all about development, and you want to add players who are progressing rather than regressing.
Anyway, I recently did a three-part mini-series where I broke the OHL’s top rated draft eligible forwards into two-tiers – top scorers being in the 1st tier, and the next wave being in the 2nd tier – and charted their split stats. I did the same for the OHL’s top point producing draft eligible defensemen.
You can get a quick explanation of why each OHL prospect produced more/less in each half by clicking those links, but I won’t be doing the same for the WHL and QMJHL because I don’t follow the league’s closely enough to know when a player’s linemate went down, he was battling through injuries, etc.
The reason I’m lumping all these charts together in one post is for conveniency purposes.
Note: only 1st year eligibles are charted.
OHL Forwards
OHL Defensemen
WHL Forwards
WHL Defensemen
QMJHL Forwards
QMJHL Defensemen
**
If you use or share this data, please cite this blog as the resource. Thanks!
Todd Cordell 